Too big to see what’s coming

March 31, 2012
By James McCarthy (nefario)

A couple of weeks ago in London I was on a panel at a banker’s conference. While representing bitcoin, others such as Paypal, bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, and  BNP Paribas also spoke. The subject of discussion being the contenders for electronic and mobile payments.

Only myself and Mike Jones from PayPal didn’t have a tie. One member of the audience didn’t wear a black suite. He had a grey one.  All that was missing were bowler caps and umbrellas. This conservatism was embodied in the speaker for BNP Paribas. His entire argument could be summarized thusly: banks have always been here, people will always need them, thank you for your time.

Head in sand

I’ve just returned from speaking at a payment processing conference in Riga, Latvia. Another speaker (this time from an IT company that sells to banks) was talking about how to reduce credit card fraud using 3D-Secure. In summary, the industry wants credit card users to enter more details and use stronger passwords when making payments with cards. The consequences of this being I must enter my details (address, name, card no., security code etc.) two or more times when buying something like train tickets. This is an understandable solution to remedy the limitation of credit cards and fight chargebacks. However, instead of focusing on the symptoms and adding friction to payments, the only way to solve this problem reasonably seems to be a restructuring of the traditional payment system.

Over these last few weeks what I have witnessed is an entire industry complacent in the conviction that they are indispensable to society. Unconcerned with what people actually do or want because “hey, we’re the banks.” Such is their confidence, that they envision a future where every means of payment, card or other electronic forms all go through them, the cashless society, the banker’s wet dream, the middle men of the future.

Change is coming, and the cosy position that banks as institutions have enjoyed for so long is not secure, finding themselves tomorrow’s dinosaurs; huge, powerful, unwieldy, and eventually extinct. Overtaken by hordes of smaller creatures, nimbler and better able to adapt.

Tomorrows banks

Sometime in 1995 the Internet opened for business and grew to about 8% of all consumer spending, estimated to be worth $279 billion by 2015 in the US alone.

The credit card  became the default method of payment for this massive market,  not because it was the best option, but the only option. For the last 15 years, if  you wanted to buy something online, you eiher used credit cards, or you didn’t  buy.

In their effort to stamp out card fraud (between 10-15% of all transactions) payment processors get consumers to give up their name, card number, security code, address, expiry date, and date of birth to every site they buy from (is it any wonder there is so much fraud) Their latest innovation is to require users to enter this information two or more times. Worse than useless, it’s actively harmful, costing users time, risking identity and losing money.

What about merchants? They pay for fraud twice over when it happens, losing both goods and payment after the card company does a chargeback. Considerable expense and time is needed to open a merchant account, when finally done processing fees that range from 3 to over 30%, depending on the goods bought and a minimum fee for each transaction. These added costs are all passed on to the consumer with higher prices. Regardless of what is advertised, no one actually has free fraud protection on their credit card. In fact, a hidden percentage of every single transaction that the merchant must include in the final price directly pays for that service.

The solution to all this is not as the banks hope for, the move to a cashless society, but back to cash which has none of these problems. Only cash cannot be spent over the internet. At least not till today. Now we have a kind of cash that works on the internet and between all electronic devices.

This new digital cash is Bitcoin, a massive evolutionary step forward, it takes two related but separate things; banking and cash, and combines the best of both. The resulting entity provides worldwide, fast payment processing and transfers, the ability to do these things without giving out personal information  (you don’t normally give your supermarket your address each time you shop do you),  involving no paperwork, eliminating the risk of fraud for merchants, and doing it at incredibly low cost.

While banks and traditional payment processors need offices, branches, ATM’s, security, armies of staff, and massive as well as complex I.T. systems, bitcoin does not. There is only the bitcoin network, a cluster of powerful computers spread across the world (the most powerful of it’s type) tended by  a select body of tech priests, day and night processing transactions across the globe.

For the consumer:

  • Convenient payment – the only question are: pay to whom? and how much
  • Lower cost – lower merchant solutions mean lower prices
  • More privacy
  • It’s your money- not a number in the bank

For the merchant:

  • No payment fraud
  • Tiny processing fees right now less than 0.01%
  • More sales – no 7steps to payment tango.
  • No paper work, no merchant accounts.

automationSince the industrial revolution, mechanisation and automation have increased what one person could produce by incredible amounts. One farmer with a tractor can take the place of thousands with horses. One factory can replace the productive output of an entire nation from at the beginning of the 1700′s in textiles.

What this process means is that there is more for everyone, and at less cost. Now even poor are able to afford mobile phones, radio’s and TV’s. Computers that once cost millions, took up entire buildings, with less power  than a modern calculator and were only available to governments. Now are available to everyone.

Why not introduce this same process to banking and money? Why pay the cost of teams of people adding numbers, typing numbers on computers, and smiling for you at the counter? Automated banking and digital cash are here, this is the financial revolution.

Of course it’s easy to understand why the bankers don’t seem too threatened. They have seen digital currencies come and go for over ten years now. The ability to zip money affordably across the planet doesn’t change the status quo if the governments restrict the transfer of wealth to a select few. What bitcoin brings that is new is the ability to send payments, person to person, without a central party. In that way it is truly the first digital currency and not just a fiat currency layered in digital space and controlled by a 3rd party.

34 Responses to Too big to see what’s coming

  1. hazek on March 31, 2012 at 6:00 pm

    Excellent read. Thanks!

  2. Anony Mouse on March 31, 2012 at 6:12 pm

    Just one disagreement where you claim that cash has “none of these problems”. Managing cash is expensive for a merchants — sometimes it factors in to be just as expensive as the payment card fees.

    The direction the industry is headed though is an improvement. The methods for paying using a mobile phone have the characteristic that the app on the mobile phone knows the phone’s physical location. And it relays this at the time of sale or the sale doesn’t go through. This helps to significantly reduce fraud in a number of ways, prevention at the time of the sale and in being able to successfully catch the perpetrator afterwards.

    Scammers won’t be able to successfully defraud using these mobile pay methods then.

    For the most part then the scammers will stick to the least secure payment methods (e.g., swiping stolen or skimmed magnetic stripe cards at the point-of-sale, or making online purchases using stolen identity data.)

    That will cause the fraud cost for those less-secure methods to increase. With increased fraud, the fee for those types of transactions will likely increase as well. And that’s when merchants will further limit which methods they accept. Or perhaps they’ll give consumers a choice in the form of discounts for the least expensive methods. (Which is the same as charging a premium for the most expensive methods, but that isn’t allowed, oddly enough).

    At gas stations in the U.S., this price difference is enough to affect buying behavior (patronize the cash-only stations or to pay using cash to get the discount). It wouldn’t be surprising to start discounts for paying with the least costly payment methods something that starts happening at grocery stores, hotels, etc.

    • James McCarthy (nefario) on March 31, 2012 at 7:14 pm

      I agree that cash has costs when talking about the physical thing, these don’t really exist with Bitcoin.

      Also the rest of your argument is kind of straw man, we’re talking about online payments, you won’t be using your phone to buy your bus tickets online.

  3. Anonymous on March 31, 2012 at 6:29 pm

    When you store your money in Bitcoin there then is the expense and hassle to move that money bank to your bank for spending. So some of those bitcoins will favor merchants that don’t force that conversion to occur first. Each day the list of options keeps growing: http://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Trade

    • James McCarthy (nefario) on March 31, 2012 at 7:15 pm

      Actually BitPay takes care of a lot of these problems, your customers pay in bitcoin, you the merchant get paid in USD at the end of each day (you can also get bitcoin is you want, it’s up to you).

  4. Anon Y. Mouse Tradition on March 31, 2012 at 7:33 pm

    I don’t get bitcoin. doesn’t it have to stay in some wallet or digital safe? what prevents copies from existing? breaking in? are my coins safe in my safe as long as the middleman is safe, and is he?

    • Donald Norman on March 31, 2012 at 8:00 pm

      digital cash, credit cards, bank accounts all require data protection. Bitcoin is the first where you can be in charge of your data or have a 3rd party protect it without them being able to steal the funds (they protect an encrypted copy). Your bitcoins can be at least as safe as any under the old infrastructure but if you know what you’re doing they can be infinitely safer. Unfortunately, many people do not yet know what they are doing (like in the old days of the internet, not knowing which merchants to trust). There are many businesses working however on solutions to make bitcoin not just a currency but a payment gateway usable by even the least tech savvy crowd.

    • Yada Yada on April 1, 2012 at 3:19 am

      Bitcoin’s “mining” mechanism prevents other copies from existing, as long as a majority of the mining computational power is owned by honest people.

      There can only be one copy of your Bitcoins, and those coins are stored in the public ledger known as the Blockchain.

      What goes in a “safe” is not the Bitcoins, but the cryptographic keys that unlock those Bitcoins. No one can move your Bitcoins without their cryptographic key(s).

      If you run your own Bitcoin client, the only extant copy of your keys are stored in the “wallet.dat” file. This file can be encrypted, put on a USB key, and the USB key can then be put in an actual safe, providing a degree of safety on par with putting cash into a safe deposit box.

  5. Alex on March 31, 2012 at 7:39 pm

    What about Dwolla? this is closer to cash then credit cards

    • Dis Claimer on March 31, 2012 at 8:44 pm

      Dwolla is just another middle man taking your money to transfer money from A to B.

    • James McCarthy (nefario) on March 31, 2012 at 11:30 pm

      Dwolla do chargebacks and is centralised, which means your account can be frozen.

  6. assy cron on March 31, 2012 at 8:07 pm

    I look forward to waiting a few hours for the network to clear my transaction once everyone begins using BitCoin.

    • molecular on March 31, 2012 at 11:05 pm

      that’s not how it works, assy cron.

      increased transaction volume does not slow down individual transactions.

  7. Joe Public on April 1, 2012 at 4:30 am

    Hi,

    A currency not redeemable in Energy is not a valid currency. This is why dollar is called petro dollar. This is why USA conquered Iraq and now trying sanctions on Iran to protect value of dollar.

    If Bitcon does not promise redemption in energy it is not a valid currency sustainable currency.

    • KrazeyDavey on April 1, 2012 at 12:44 pm

      Electricity costs money and I can exchange my bitcoins for Hydroponic grown plants that grown using lots of electricity. I can take those Hydroponic Plants and sell them for whatever Common Currency, I want. Sure its a risk, so is buying stock, investing in Bernie Madeoff and all other investments.

      It works for me. Thank you prohibition.

      • Joe Public on April 2, 2012 at 12:32 am

        “Money is a promise to deliver energy” – No other definition will create a sustainable system.

        Food grains used as currency = absolute currency

        Clay tablets that promise delivery of 100 measure of wheat = valid currency

        Paper note that promises delivery of 100 measure of rice = valid currency

        Paper note that promises to delivery of 100 barrels of petroleum = valid currency

        Gold coins that don’t promise anything = fake currency

        Silver coins that don’t promise anything = fake currency

        Fiat currency issued by central banks that don’t promise delivery of energy = fake currency

        Bitcoin, if it does not promise delivery of energy = fake currency.

        Replacing fake fiat currency with fake bitcoin currency is absolute foolishness only Banksters will come up with bitcoin idea.

  8. Anon on April 1, 2012 at 5:42 am

    With Bitcoin the exchange process converts back from “seller beware” to “buyer beware” because a customer using bitcoin no longer has the protection of disputing a transaction where the seller failed to deliver.

    This creates interesting challenges for bitcoin. Sellers will live and die by their reputations and will likely need to be more transparent to attract bitcoin customers. I look forward to seeing how the market creates possible solutions to these challenges.

  9. Petr on April 1, 2012 at 6:26 am

    “For the last 15 years, if you wanted to buy something online, you eiher used credit cards, or you didn’t buy.” This is maybe true in US, but not in Europe. Here are at least three options:
    1) send money online – from bank account to another bank account (similar such as send bitcoin :-) )
    2) pay for delivered package
    3) credit card – lowly used here because expensive.

  10. Zafolo on April 1, 2012 at 8:36 am

    I think the most important problem for a cash-like system is how to establish sufficient trust for the buyers. Banks act as trust mediators. I can spend bitcoins in many places, but it is often hard to know for me whether I will get anything for my pay.

  11. Mathieu on April 1, 2012 at 11:18 am

    Fix. “Merchant pay for fraud twice over when it happens, losing both goods and payment after the card company does a chargeback.”

    If they were loosing only “Once” that’d be a regular tansaction.

    Aka, a gain.

  12. Tom Crowl on April 1, 2012 at 1:52 pm

    Good article… and bitcoin may well have a promising future.

    However its not likely traditional currencies will disappear anytime soon… and the banking sector remains concentrated and problematic. And that’s for many reasons, one of which being the F.I.R.E. sector’s dominance of political decision.

    Money, as much as we might not like it… has roots intimately tied to decision.

    Decision Technologies: Currencies and the Social Contract
    http://culturalengineer.blogspot.com/2010/07/decision-technologies-currencies-and.html

    And scaling decision has inherent problems related to natural human community size…

    Issues in Scaling Civilization: The Altruism Problem
    http://culturalengineer.blogspot.com/2012/02/issues-in-scaling-civilization-altruism.html

    To me this suggest a critical need:

    A viable political microtransaction in traditional currencies and the ability to network that transaction with others without large bank intermediation… in other words a user-owned and governed network… (or network of networks adhering to certain shared policies).

    I’m convinced such a network becomes a vitally needed root structure for the future of money, banking and the scaling of civilization.

    Here’s one ‘shape’ such a network might take:

    The Chagora Model: Scaling Speech
    http://culturalengineer.blogspot.com/2012/01/chagora-model-scaling-speech-and.html

  13. correi on April 1, 2012 at 2:29 pm

    “For the last 15 years, if you wanted to buy something online, you eiher used credit cards, or you didn’t buy”

    That might be right for the US but not for places like Europe where a credit card is not such common

  14. Ruediger Koch (anu) on April 2, 2012 at 11:16 am

    I can’t see how Bitcoin is going to do all these things people say it would. Banking is not going away. OK, maybe checking accounts and Western Union will go away, but the entire credit, private banking and investment banking business are not affected, and that’s 99.9% of banking. For an investment banker, Bitcoin is just another currency and no threat.

    It is not at all clear yet that Bitcoin will dominate mobile payment. I think it is extremely important that it will – otherwise we’ll be at the mercy of corporations and governments for good. But Bitcoin is late in the game and network effects, market power, user friendlyness and government support of proprietary solutions may push Bitcoin into the shadow economy where it is easily outlawed. Once we’re at that, your neighbor will nod approvingly when police drags you off because you used Bitcoin (honest people have nothing to hide!).

    All this dinosaur talk is not helpful. This is just alienating people who could be our allies, e.g. investment bankers. And to stay with your Dino analogy: The dinosaurs did not go extinct. They are still more successful than the mammals. Just nowadays we call them BIRDS.

    • Ruediger Koch (anu) on April 2, 2012 at 11:38 am

      another type of bank that should be a natural ally of Bitcoin are unregulated banks, e.g. hedge funds.

    • 0x69 on April 2, 2012 at 7:15 pm

      “The dinosaurs did not go extinct. [...] Just nowadays we call them BIRDS”

      Does the fact that we share some of our DNA with mouse makes us mouse ?

      • Amir Taaki (genjix) on April 2, 2012 at 8:49 pm

        No, he’s right. Technically birds are dinosaurs. Scientists separate them according to non-avian dinosaurs and avian-dinosaurs (birds). And there’s a ton of overlap with flying non-avian dinosaurs (microraptor) and no clear delineation.

        But when someone calls something a ‘dinosaur’, I get what they mean: fast, warm-blooded, intelligent and wildly successful. Lets not play semantics here :)

        • Ruediger Koch (anu) on April 3, 2012 at 8:02 am

          Just wanted to emphasize that once the Bitcoin asteroid hits some business model will become obsolete, but the banking business as such will go on. The business models set for extinction seem to be the Western Union model, the retail banking model and most deserving, the Seigniorage model.

          Particularly the Seigniorage model is a sort of T-Rex that should go extinct: Big, scary, resource consuming and totally useless for the rest of the economy. If this monster is at large it can easily devastate whole economies as Mr. Mugabe just demonstrated again. But even when not in “super predator mode”, it damages the economy through ressource misallocation.

          But why for example hedge funds would be on their way out on the arrival of Bitcoin escapes me.

  15. jason on April 2, 2012 at 2:06 pm

    How can I start accepting BitCoins in my business online?

  16. BitcoinAndie on April 2, 2012 at 4:25 pm

    The keys to success are the speed of adoption and market penetration rates. The BTC community needs to level up in its thinking. We need more business specialists who understand payment systems, clearing and settlement, marketing and customer service. We need to work to create that tipping point by building an easy to use bridge between old world payment systems and BTCs. Using BTCs should not be a test of one’s resolve or IT savvy. Rather, whenever BTCs catch someone’s eye, it should be as easy to access the Internet and as intuitive to use as a Mac.

    As card-based payments give way to mobile, and people transition into BTCs, with the assumption that underlying dat.wallet functionality similarly evolves, many of the interfaces, access roads, and bridges we build today will melt away. This is what I envision.

  17. Some Name on April 2, 2012 at 11:44 pm

    I can tell you from my own experience the banksters live in a world somewhere around 1990. They still do their Cobol stuff on IBM mainframe, they heard about linux but if they do need to move away from mainframe then they go for Unix. Quite many of the software guys working for finance industry are between 55 – 60 and things like Java is something they prefer avoid or give someone 20 years younger. They really are the dinos waiting for retirement.

  18. Amir Taaki (genjix) on April 2, 2012 at 11:55 pm

    “finding themselves tomorrow’s dinosaurs; huge, powerful, unwieldy, and eventually extinct.”

    This hurts me. Dinosaurs aren’t extinct, nor were they all huge, nor unwiedly. They were wildly successful animals that still live on as birds, and the non-avian dinosaurs had a longer tenure than the heyday of mammals (only 65 million years, whereas the mesozoic was 125 million years).

    And that picture is soooo wrong. Styracosaurus didn’t even live in the late Cretaceous and was a basal ceratopsian that went extinct because of . That genera was long dead when the meteor hit.

  19. Joel on April 5, 2012 at 3:09 am

    What this author seems to underestimate (apparently because he’s unaware of it) is the banking elite’s persistent determination to warp legal systems and do murder on any scale to ensure its continued dominance of the global political system from one year, decade, and century to the next.

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