Here is a graph of the historical market volume.
If we compare this to the historical price, we see there is not really any causal link between them. Therefore, drawing tenuous links between is risky without evidence.
If you look closely at the graph, you will see a red and green line. The green line is a 2000 point moving mean average (the current point is last point in moving average).
The following is a graph of the ratio between the moving average and spot price difference to the moving average.
As you can see, market instability in Bitcoin has gone way down, while volume is healthy. This is great news for the long term potential and growth of Bitcoin.
My network of Bitcoin friendly friends has gone way up in the last few months. It’s been a LONG time since I’ve bought/sold Bitcoins through an exchange and almost always happens between friends now.
What happens to the exchange rate when Bitcoin trading goes decentralized en masse?
It goes down as the pro miners lower their prices in order to sell in bulk on the exchanges.
A basket of goods can be used to figure out it’s price..
That will never happen because it’s inefficient to process exchanges in a decentralized manner (spreads are higher). Further, all those who exchange person-to-person like yourself are going to be using the exchange prices as references. It’s nice to be able to exchanges with friends primarily, but that will always be a derivative market of the primary exchange centers like Gox, etc.
you misspelled Intersango
that’s similar to asking: “what happens when the silver paper market decouples from the physical market”.
some other price-finding mechanism would be established by the market.
Less volume – lower liquidity – lower prices. It’s a law
Volume and liquidity go hand in hand but aside from that your comment Andrew makes no sense.
Pricing is simply supply and demand
I’d say we got what we wished for (last year).
Fear and Hope feed the steady hands.
It’s more lucrative nowadays to be confident (in a $5 bitcoin) than panicky and jumpy at any half-asses move above/below $5.
Therefore people grow more confident… awesome!
I predict however, that the price will not remain around $5 throughout the year. Let’s just hope when it moves substantially, it will do so slowly enough to not produce another hyperbole.
That is a good distinction, thakns for the links. My point was a bit more general: moving real money into virtual is getting easier. In the case of ExchB customers are funding a BTC account with cash or cheque and this gives BTC increased liquidity. Being able to then draw BTC from a bitcoin ATM continues this trend.It is a fascinating area and one that is moving very quickly..Regards,Kris
hey amir, do you know the functions “from_unixtime(..)” (mysql) and “to_timestamp(..)” (postgres)?
sure
I didn’t convert the times out of laziness.
I think the fact that volatility has attenuated is enormously important for broader adoption of Bitcoin. Amir or another giving this topic full treatment in a longer article (with better graphs
) would be great for the community.
I am on my way to launch a bonus concept, where normal customers will get thier bonus in Bitcoins. This will move values into the Bitcoin world and maybee this will move the price a bit up, we will need around 50.000BTC if the value stays at $5/BTC.
This will do a lot of persons to bitcoin owners, where most of them never have heard of Bitcoins before!
Support to this project will go to at sales person there can convince large firms to join this bonus concept.
support: bitcoin:1DpYGBqErFCLfCX1X8EcW6qcdYCq68b6cR
next mounth you will find more information on: btcex.eu
Interesting is that, along with decreased volatility, number of transactions has increased significantly since start of May. I think that means some big traders came to bitcoin markets. There’s more competition now, less profit on bitcoin price movement and therefore less volatility. Number of transactions is comparable to last years bitcoin bubble numbers.
Bitcoin is dead. Ok, that is an exaggeration, what I mean is that Bitcoin alone is now old hat and GLBSE 2.0 is the new toy to play with.
All those that missed the early investor opportunity, this is your chance. Do you have the balls to hand your coin to strangers over the internet in exchange for your weekly dividends? If you do you may reap the rewards or lose it all.
The age of GLBSE has begun.
Learn to make graphs.
http://www.amazon.com/The-Grammar-Graphics-Statistics-Computing/dp/0387245448/ref=dp_ob_title_bk